The author of these lines was pleased to explain how Sony had regained color and expecting a bright future, both in forefront of innovations Finance. The CEO of the same group promised to shareholders patients increasing dividends. Boom. The giant Japanese electronics was forced Thursday to cut its forecasts without shrift of financial results for the current year, the innocent victim of global economic collapse and its attendant consequences, starting with the surge of the yen become a refuge currency against the dollar and the euro.

Sony, which had lowered its first claim in July, seeing the crisis already restrict its margins, no table now rather than annual net profit of 150 billion yen (1.30 billion euros at current price), lower more than half that collected last year. "The economic situation has deteriorated drastically and our financial situation is below our estimates in July because of the strong appreciation of the yen," said group chief financial officer, Nobuyuki Oneda, at a conference Press convened in emergency.

The sudden and sharp rise in the Japanese currency produced disastrous effects on revenue assumptions televisions, digital cameras, camcorders and other electronic devices distributed worldwide. It's simple: if Sony provides a product that sells 200 euros in Europe will bring him 33,000 yen on the basis of an exchange rate at 165 yen per euro, the same article proposed at the same rate in euro does more than 25,000 yen when the currency falls to 125 yen. Ditto on the U.S. market when the yen rises against the dollar. That is exactly what happened in a few weeks and that no one had anticipated. Multiply this case by millions of products and, upon arrival, the differential billions of euros or dollars so hundreds of billions of yen.

Sony, which still pariait in July on exchange rate of 105 yen per dollar and 160 yen per euro, courses almost as favorable in 2007, face new setbacks if its estimates Adventure for the current next six months (100 yen per dollar and 140 yen per euro) are still too optimistic. The greenback s'échangeait into effect Friday under the 95 yen and the euro around 115 yen. In short, if monetary values remain at alarming levels for several weeks or months, Sony will still have to prevent its shareholders that profits are not up to expectations. And if, to offset the effects of exchange and preserve its margins, it increases its prices in euros and dollars from Japan, its products are more competitive and customers disdain for the benefit of those less expensive competitors in South Korea European, Chinese or others.

Especially since, the second consequence of the crisis is looming decline in demand for electronic products, primarily in the United States and Europe. "We believe now that we flow 16 million televisions this year, as we ciblions 17 million previously," said Oneda. Suddenly, this most emblematic and which should become profitable this year, could end the fiscal year once again in the red. Same for the video games, affected by exchange rates, although sales of consoles and digital entertainment act associated rather well in Units. "The return to operating profit (in these two areas) now appears difficult," admitted the skipper Finance Group. Sony is in fact resulted in a price war with its competitors in the sector and other TV products general public. That increases the difficulty of forecasting and ensure profits.

Bilan, the flagship of Japanese electronics n'escompte now more than annual turnover of 9,000 billion yen (78 billion euros at current price) against 9200 billion previously expected. This is still higher than last year (8,871 billion), but the horizon is still clouded because profits will not follow. The economic turnaround is all the more sad that Sony had just reconnect with the strong overall profitability in 2007 and restoring morale as well as its employees to its shareholders. Worse, he thought now that the economy will not recover in a few weeks.
This dark prediction seems widely shared. The evidence, the Tokyo Stock Exchange has yet collapsed Friday, Sony led with all the major sector of electronics in its dizzying tumble.

The benchmark Tokyo instead, the Nikkei 225 fell by 9.60% Friday, after a memorable day nightmare, the fourth month after those entries in the annals of 8, 10 and 16 October ( respectively -9.4% -9.6% and -11.41%). Fearing a flood of downward revisions to the objectives of export profits of Japanese firms, investors in the Tokyo Stock Exchange got rid of their actions.

The shock of very ominous created by Sony by dividing its financial simulations not only unscrew 14.07% of the price of its action, but he also pushed the entire technology sector, sparing none of the heavyweight Japanese consumer electronics such as Panasonic, Canon, Sharp, Nikon or Pioneer. Usually less sanctioned, the leading Japanese video game consoles, Nintendo has also been caught in the trap. Investors is that Japanese companies also fear that the caution of Western and Japanese consumers, coupled with the difficulty of obtaining credit, leads an offer exceeds demand, thus leading to excess stocks of excess production .

This apprehension is frightening for the time deemed unfounded by the Japanese Prime Minister, Taro Aso, who said Friday from Beijing that the Japanese economy is not bad, but it suffers severely impact movements and extreme values of currencies. The man is not wrong, however. Many Japanese companies, starting with Sony, have been deeply restructured and reorganized at the beginning of this decade, is recovering from the bursting bubble of real estate, financial and technological effects of the September 11 attacks in the United States, terrible enfilade events endured between 1991 and 2001. The current situation of Japanese companies (including banks) is not in itself disastrous. However, things could deteriorate rapidly if customers are scarce, except that each firm fits seamlessly with this new deal, which is not impossible but requires to do it early enough to avoid not repeat the mistakes of the past.
The sharp decline in prices of raw materials and oil can help reduce their costs, as productivity gains through innovation, tax cuts and shrinking administrative costs. "We must prepare for difficult times, however, warned the finance boss of Sony. And even clear that the group is planning an "action plan" to "reduce costs" in reviewing such investment projects. The aim is to restore at least partly margins have shrunk because of external events sudden, unforeseen who ruined in no time efforts for years at the cost of restructuring in pain. "It is not yet possible to specify the nature and magnitude of decisions we will take, but must implement concrete measures," said Oneda.

If pessimism Sony really damn funk to the traders, indeed, this mastodon is not the first to have sounded the alarm. The group of electronics, computer and telecommunications systems had surpassed NEC indicating that waiting this year a net profit of 15 billion yen (100 million euros) while that previously it expected a net profit of 35 billion. NEC points out a contraction in equipment orders from Japanese telecommunications operators, as well as difficult market conditions in the field of public devices (PC and mobile phones in particular) and electronic components. NEC, hoping an annual turnover of 4,800 billion yen, now provides more than 4600 billion, or 4.2% less than last year.

Other recent warning that Sharp, a model of success for his countrymen (he is number one local LCD TV and cell phones). This pioneering technology of liquid crystal display has also been forced to revise its estimates for the current year, penalized by a drop considerable purchases of mobile in Japan and a deterioration of the profitability of its LCD televisions facing fierce competition. For the twelve months from April 2008 to March 2009, Sharp n'escompte more than a net profit of 60 billion yen, a fall of 44.2% compared to last year, against an initial forecast of 105 billion.

The flood of bad news is probably not over, as Japanese companies have made their new calculations before the yen does flies, making them already obsolete. In other words, the probability that things get worse and that investors away even more Japanese manufacturing companies those high-tech (as well as manufacturers of automobiles) is unfortunately very high. This is not because their leaders have sinned (unlike the bankers) or even because their products do not meet customer expectations (far from it), but because the quest by agioteurs gain immediate makes shareholders oblivious of the real human, social, technical and industrial enterprises created by these captains of industry philanthropists.